Ethanol at 15%: Argentina's blend debate and what it means for the northwest

The Senate is currently debating raising the mandatory ethanol blend from 12% to 15%, and with it opening the way for flex-fuel vehicles. The law in force is 27,640, from 2021: gasoline carries 12% bioethanol split equally between sugarcane and corn. The bill proposes:

Bioethanol

Stays at 12% and rises one point every six months until it reaches 15%. The initial 12% remains split equally between sugarcane and corn; above that level there are no segments.

Biodiesel

Starts at 7.5% and rises to 10% after six months. It then increases one point every six months, up to 15%.

Pricing

Set through public tenders, with caps linked to import parity.

Flex-fuel vehicles

Provides for the approval of flex-fuel vehicles and pumps for blends above the mandate.

The bill is still in committee. Since March, Resolution 79/2026 already allows voluntary blends of up to 15% by raising the oxygen limit to 5.6%: the technical door is already open, now it is a matter of the Senate enshrining it in law.

Price at the pump

March's relaxation was presented as a tool to cushion pump prices against rising crude. Every point of blend reduces the fossil-gasoline share of the mix.

Regional development

For the mills of the northwest the mandate is demand with a known floor, and that is what makes investment possible. The business is no longer just the litre: Tucumán was the first province to cogenerate electricity from bagasse, and plants now feed the grid — the one at the La Florida mill has 24 MW installed.

Emissions

How much it reduces emissions on net depends on how the cane was grown and what energy ran the plant — which is exactly the next point.

The rest of the world already did it

Brazil raised its mandate to 30% in August 2025, up from 27.5%. India hit 20% during 2025, five years ahead of its own target. Against that, 15% is a reasonable floor rather than an ambitious ceiling.

One panel at the summit dealt with ethanol as a feedstock for aviation fuel through the alcohol-to-jet route. That market does not buy litres, it buys certified reduction. Under CORSIA a fuel is only eligible if it demonstrates at least 10% lower lifecycle emissions than fossil jet fuel, whose baseline is 89 gCO₂e/MJ, and the demonstration has to be audited under a recognised scheme such as ISCC or RSB.

Cogenerated power raises the same question from the other side: how to attribute and document the emission factor of what reaches the grid. And bagasse brings in biogenic CO₂, which is not added to the total the way fossil CO₂ is but reported separately.